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DTN Midday Grain Comments     09/29 11:16

   Grain Mostly Higher in Quiet Pre-Report Trade

   Grain trade is mostly higher in quiet pre-report action.

By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

General Comments

   The U.S. stock market indices are lower and Dow futures are down 50. The 
interest rate products are lower. The U.S. dollar index is 6 lower. Energies 
are higher with crude up $.40. Livestock trade is mixed with cattle mostly 
higher and hogs lower after Friday's Hog and Pig report. Precious metals are 
higher with gold up $3.90. 


   Corn trade is a penny higher in quiet midday trade. Harvest progress this 
weekend and early this week is picking up. Rains look to slow harvest progress 
at midweek before a more open pattern resumes. The weekly export inspections 
were a little soft at 601,825 metric tons. The weekly crop condition and 
progress report is expected to show conditions unchanged, with maturity and 
harvest running slightly behind the five-year average. On the December chart 
resistance is at $3.35 3/4. Support is now $3.20 with another new contract low 
printed at $3.22 on the December. The quarterly Hog and Pig report was slightly 
supportive for corn with higher feed implications for 2014-15 feed usage. 
Looking to Tuesday morning when the USDA will release the September quarterly 
Grain Stocks report, final wheat and revised soybean production number. The 
average trade guess for the corn September 1 quarterly stocks (which is also 
the old-crop ending stocks number) is 1.185 billion, which is 4 million above 
the September USDA WASDE number. The range of estimates is 1.02-1.35 billion. 


   Soybean trade is 5 to 8 cents higher with light profit taking vs. shorts at 
midday. Meal is mixed and oil is 35 to 45 points higher. On the November chart 
support is $9 with the lowest major moving average, the 10-day, noted 
resistance at $9.44. South American planting is just getting underway with 
increased acres expected. So the fundamental picture is firmly and historically 
bearish with heavy global and domestic supply side data and market 
expectations. The weekly export inspections were good at 687,191 metric tons. 
The weekly crop progress report is expected to show steady conditions and 
maturity slightly behind the five-year average. This year the significance of 
the September 30 stocks report is muted due to the expectations of a huge 
record 2014 crop. The average trade guess for the September USDA quarterly 
stocks is 126 million bushels with a range of 100-150 million. The final 
soybean crop revision is expected to come in at 3.362 billion with a range of 
3.29-3.4 billion versus the September 3.289 billion USDA number.


   Wheat trade is narrowly mixed at midday with early gains giving way after 
the dollar firmed off the early lows. The dollar has backed away from the highs 
and a trend reversal would make wheat more competitive on the world market. The 
Southern Plains look to have decent weather for field work and planting in the 
near term. The weekly export inspections were good at 573,647 metric tons. The 
weekly progress report should show spring wheat harvest nearly complete, and 
winter wheat planting 2% to 5% ahead of normal. Wheat is oversold on the charts 
with limited chart support to mention other than the contract lows. First 
resistance on the Kansas City December contract is at the 10-day moving average 
at $5.67. Looking to Tuesday the average trade guess for the September 
quarterly wheat stocks is 1.88 billion bushels with a range of 1.7-1.98 
billion. The domestic 2014 all wheat production estimate is 2.04 billion with a 
range of 2-2.075 billion bushels. 

   David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the president of FuturesOne 
and a registered Trading Adviser. 

   David Fiala can be reached at 

   Follow David Fiala on Twitter @davidfiala


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