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DTN Midday Grain Comments     07/28 11:09

   Grains Mixed at Midday

   Soybean trade is the midday leader, corn is positive, and wheat is lagging.

By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

General Comments

   The U.S. stock market indices are lower with the Dow down 16. The interest 
rate products are mixed. The dollar index is 4 lower. Energies are lower with 
crude oil down $0.40. Livestock trade is mixed. Precious metals are higher with 
gold up $1. 


   Corn trade is 2 to 3 cents higher at midday with spillover support from 
beans and light weather concerns. The weather forecast looks to be mostly cool 
and dry, helping to keep crop conditions fairly stable with some pockets likely 
losing some yield potential. Ethanol margins remain solid, with basis remaining 
mostly sideways with harvest in the South approaching quickly. The weekly 
export inspections edged a bit lower at 805,365 metric tons. The weekly crop 
progress report is expected to show mostly stable conditions with a light 
decline possible. If ratings are down 2% or more that may spark a little short 
profit taking heading into month-end on Thursday. The maturity of the crop is 
expected to remain inline with the five-year average. December chart support 
with remain the recent low at $3.64, with the 10-day moving average at $3.76 
first resistance.


   Soybean trade is 12 to 18 cents higher at midday with support from the drier 
forecast and light chart buying. Meal is $4 to $5 higher and oil is 25 to 35 
points higher. For the bulk of the belt, soybeans look to be entering the 
reproductive phase with mostly dry weather, but excessive heat will be lacking. 
The weekly export inspections were OK at 112,345 metric tons. The weekly crop 
progress report is expected to show conditions stable to slightly lower, with 
maturity inline with the five-year average. On the November chart, support is 
the contract low of $10.55 from last week, with resistance the 20-day moving 
average at $11.00, which we have been testing most of the morning.


   Wheat trade is 3 to 8 cents lower across the three contracts at midday with 
commercial selling giving back some of the gains from last week. Spillover 
support from the row crops has been noted limiting downside. Trade remains 
oversold, and a good finish to the day and continued row crop gains will likely 
encourage short covering. The weekly export inspections were a little soft at 
395,963 metric tons. The weekly crop progress report should show winter wheat 
at 85% harvested, and spring wheat conditions slightly lower, and maturity 
inline with the five-year average. On the chart, trade is hovering just below 
the 10-day moving averages for nearby Chicago and Kansas City wheat at $5.34 
and $6.30 respectively, with the lows from last week remaining support for now.

   David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne 
and a registered trading adviser.     

   David Fiala can be reached at

   Follow David Fiala on Twitter @davidfiala 


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